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Quarterly Report Archive

ALAMO REAL ESTATE UPDATES – 3rd QUARTER ending September 30, 2016

Dear Alamo Homeowner:

This is your Alamo real estate update for the third quarter ending September 30, 2016. The chart at the bottom - below my contact information - presents the sales statistics for single-family detached homes in Alamo, California for years from 2000 to 2015 and for each of the first three quarters of years 2013 to 2016.

 

  • Sales Volume - There have been 160 detached home sales in Alamo during the first three quarters of 2016 which, from a volume standpoint, is up only slightly from the 154 detached home sales during the first three quarters of 2015.

 

  • Sales Prices - The median sales price for a detached home in Alamo during the first three quarters of 2016 was $1,637,500 vs $1,510,625 for the 154 homes sold during the first three quarters of 2015 and $1,460,000 for the 193 detached home sales in Alamo during the first three quarters of 2014. It should be pointed out that the median price during the third quarter unto itself was $1,625,000 while the median price over the first half was $1,675,000 showing a slow-down in the third quarter. This is consistent with current thinking by the real estate profession. As a matter of fact, each month during the third quarter showed a decline in the median sale price as witnessed by the 13 homes sold in September at a median price of $1,555,000 compared to the 22 homes sold in August at a median price of $1,674,931 and the 18 homes sold in July at a median price of $1,730,000. Hence, it appears as though we are entering a slow period. And, I should mention that the fourth quarter is notorious for being slower than the rest of the year.

 

  • Sales - Distressed vs. Non-Distressed Sales - Distressed vs. Non-Distressed Sales - Of the 160 detached homes sold and closed in Alamo during the first three quarters of 2016, 5 were distressed properties (properties that were either a "short sale", "REO ("Real Estate Owned" by Banks) or "Auction Sale".

 

  • Pendings - As of the date of this writing, there are 21 detached Alamo homes showing as "Pending". The median list price for the "Pending" homes approximates $1,595,000 (at the end of the second quarter the median price for the Pending homes was $1,649,000). The median "Days On Market" for the Pending homes is 21 days. Only one of the 21 Pending homes is considered a distressed property.

 

  • Active Homes - In Alamo, for the most part, there had been between 90 and 150 Active homes on the market at any given time between April 2008 and October 2011 showing an over-inventoried situation producing a soft market during that timeframe. As of this writing, there are 40 detached homes on the market in Alamo vs 22 "Active" units as of the beginning of 2016. So, our inventory has grown since the beginning of the year, but, fortunately, not in a significant way. Of special note is the fact that the median list price of the "Active" homes currently is $1,947,500. That means that we continue to have a sizeable disparity with what is on the market in terms of price and what has been the sweet spot for buyers of Alamo detached homes. With that much disparity, two things can happen: 1) buyers will climb the ladder of price to get what they want, or 2) there will be less number of buyers at the prices offered or they will simply back off purchasing at this time and homes will sit on the market accumulating Days On Market ("DOM"). The latter appears to be occurring. Currently, the level of "Active" homes represents approximately 2 to 3 months worth of inventory depending on which period of sales activity you choose as your basis. The 40 "Active" homes have been on the market for a median of 70 days - sitting for quite some time. None of the 40 active homes are considered distressed properties.

 

Summary - We can say with confidence that we have been going through somewhat of a slow-down recently resulting in some pricing correction. The 39 currently "Active" homes have a median list price of nearly $1,947,500 vs a median selling price of $1,637,500 for the first three quarters of 2016. That is a significant difference. Please understand that everything herein addresses Alamo unto itself. The notion of Westside vs Eastside of I-680 sales were not considered in this writing. Other towns and cities may have very different statistics.

Please understand that everything herein addresses Alamo unto itself.

 

If you have any questions or wish to discuss anything contained herein, feel free to contact me - see below.

Brad Gothberg

CA BRE 00964026

J. Rockcliff Realtors

925-998-5151.